A Ku Indeed!

Initial Bad News for McCain-Palin

Posted in Politics by Chris on September 1, 2008

Andrew Sullivan discusses the first polls to come out on McCain’s pick of Palin. The upshot: the critical undecided voters have a sharply negative view of the pick. A few interesting numbers, one of which is that only 6% of undecided voters thought Palin was ready to be President. Ouch.

Note: if McCain wants to move that 6% number north, he might want to stop touting Palin’s PTA experience as a central part of her skill set for the vice-presidency.

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4 Responses

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  1. Jonah said, on September 2, 2008 at 1:28 am

    I’ve been a big fan of Sullivan’s for years, but he seems to be so rabidly against Palin that I don’t trust what he says in that regard.

  2. Chris said, on September 2, 2008 at 3:38 am

    Jonah,

    I agree that Sullivan is very anti-Palin, but in this case the poll he cites isn’t his own, he’s just drawing attention to the existence of the data, so should it matter?

  3. Jonah said, on September 2, 2008 at 10:25 am

    it’s not the data I’m suspicious of (if only because I haven’t looked at it; polls are of variable reliability, if any) but the analysis.

    I think he’s cherry picking the data and trying to sneak in two assumptions without discussing them: that undecided voters are Mccain’s target and that Palin being conservative will hurt their chances.

  4. Chris said, on September 2, 2008 at 10:34 am

    I don’t think he is cherry-picking. I think McCain is shooting for two/three groups (other than trying to shore up the evangelical vote): (a) undecideds and (b) women Clinton supporters. To be honest, I’d be willing to put (b) into (a), to go even further (different argument, though).

    IMO, I think McCain knows that he cannot win simply with his base, though he can’t win without them either. He has to reach over.

    Note, also, that this poll suggests that only 9% of Obama supporters are thinking of crossing, where as 6% of McCain supporters say this makes them less likely to vote for him (that could mean, of course that they stay home). That’s not enough, I don’t think, for a win, at least in part (but not only) because some of those 9% who are “thinking” about it won’t follow through.

    The undecided voters are key, just as much as they almost always are; those voters tend to be the center moderates who aren’t partisan one way or the other. And he’s not, according to this poll, doing very well with those voters.

    That’s bad news.


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