Gay Marriage and Prop 8
Those who follow the issue of gay marriage no doubt know that Proposition 8 passed in California, denying gays the right to marry. I was looking at the internal polling numbers on the voter demographics for Prop 8, and they show an interesting feature: although voters in the 29 – 64 group voted around 55% in favor of the proposition, and those in the 64+ group voted 61% for it, those in the 18 – 29 group voted 61% against the proposition. What do you make of this?
There are at least two interpretations:
A. Young people tend to be progressive, but then, as the old saying goes, they turn conservative. So by this interpretation, there’s probably little difference in the way this group voted now and how they voted 10, 20 or 30 years ago (or would have voted, if the proposition had been on the table). Thus, by this interpretation, these voters will, in time, turn into the 55% in favor group when they are in the middle group, and then when they are older they will be generally 61% in favor (more or less).
B. Young people are trending more towards progressive values. If this is so, then we should expect that when they are in the middle group, that group will swing for gay marriage, as will the new young group, leaving only the older generation to be against gay marriage. As a result, gay marriage will be inevitable in California (and then, possibly by extention, in other places in the country). If you buy the (B) interpretation, the gay marriage train has left the station, it’s just taking a while to arrive. By these lights, conservatives are fighting a losing battle.
What do you think? Which is it, (A), or (B)? Or some other option, (C)?